US 2020 Presidential Election Predictions

This is the only site with all 2020 US Election Predictions

July 7: GOTI enters the picture

So, what am I talking about. I am certainly not talking about John Gotti, the famous Mafia boss pictured to the left side. For one reason, he's been dead for 18 years. So, Mr. Gotti is not a candidate for President.

I'm referring to Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa, which until recently were likely to lean Republican states. Now, the odds are changing, and the chances of Democrats flipping some of them, or even all of them (a full Goti) look more likely.

I particularly liked the comparative analysis of JHK Forecasts, as they average 11 forecasts (see list the end of this discussion). Values shown below in parenthesis in blue and brown boxes are Democratic (Biden) party win probabilities. The pink box shows Republican (Trump) win probabilities. I considered that any win probability of under 63% places a state in the toss-up group. Georgia and Ohio are right now the most vulnerable. It is pretty obvious why Republicans want a convention split between North Carolina and Florida, and Democrats want Wisconsin. Big swing states!

If I were to change the rules slightly, and say all states from 55% to 63% are in the tilt category, then all the toss-ups become tilt Democrat. All totaled, there are 189 EV's that are definitely flipable. I've got 2 more votes - the two states which allow splitting votes (Maine and Nebraska) are not included in this table. I consider ME2 to lean Republican and NE2 to be a toss-up, for one EV each. Now, we're back to the Real Clear Politics map with 191 toss up votes.

We are moving towards a more likely win from Democrats. What is different is Michigan is now lean-likely Democrat and Georgia is almost a toss-up state. Florida has 29 EV's and some put it in the tilt Democrat camp. There's no question that Democrat strategists see Texas with 38 votes as a prize battleground state, followed by Georgia and Ohio. I will use these win probabilities in a simulation run soon.

I try very hard not to comment on either Democratic or Republican campaign rhetoric. However, there is no evidence that the US elections could be rigged by a foreign government by printing up absentee ballots or people stealing mail-in ballots from mailboxes.

Please vote, whether it is by mail-in or in person. Every vote counts.

Game on!

Stay tuned,

David Lord

Eleven forecasts from JHK comparative analysis:

JHK's state by state comparison

The 11 forecasts are: JHK forecast, Bitencourt/Nikanen, Cook Political, Inside Election, Politico, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cnalysis, Lean Tossup, Plural Vote, CNN, NPR. There are about six other forecasts not included (ones that I know of): Economist, Election Projections, Electoral-Votes, Real Clear Politics, US News and World Report and Ryan Gest (on Youtube). Also excluded are the consensus maps as shown on "270 to win" and "Political Wire" and this is for good reason as they would not add to this analysis since they already are averaging other maps.

I don't know exactly how the data from these 11 forecasts were averaged into win probabilities, as many maps only provide categories, such as solid, likely, lean and toss-up for each parties. Seems there should be a translation table from these labels to numerical probabilities.

I found this site to be a real trove of valuable information, with excellent charts. I hope to add similar charts to my site soon.

Swing States Abbreviations, Name and EV's

NV = Nevada (6)

NH = New Hampshire (4)

MI = Michigan (16)

PA = Pennsylvania (20)

AZ = Arizona (11)

WI = Wisconsin (10)

NC = North Carolina (15)

FL = Florida (29)

TX = Texas (38)

GA = Georgia (16)

IA = Iowa (6)

OH = Ohio (18)

NE2 = Nebraska Second Congressional District (1). Nebraska has 3 CD's each with 1 vote. The state has 2 votes, for a total of 5 votes.

ME2 = Maine Second Congressional District (1). Maine has 2 CD's, each with 1 vote. The state has 2 votes for a total of 4 votes.